Kiwi strength renewed
30th January 2017
Kiwi strength has led to confirmation that the NZDUSD trend is again positive, and also signals that gains in AUDNZD were temporary.
Last week’s gains in NZDUSD created the 5th positive weekly performance in a row and confirmed prices above both the 13 & 21 week moving averages. This, coupled with a confirming move by RSI through its own moving average, signals that the setback from the Sep/Nov is likely to be complete. This after exactly 50% of the Sep 2015 – Sep 2016 rise had been corrected. The medium term upside targets now are to .7389, a 76% correction of the Apr-Sep 2015 fall, then .7487, last year’s peak.
AUDNZD ended 2016 renewing the negative tone that dominated most of the year. This seemed to be threatened by the rally from this month’s modestly higher low (confirmed by the RSI). But the move beyond the 13/21 week averages was limited and, after last week’s fall of almost 1 ½ big figures (largest weekly decline since October), selling pressure has been resumed. Here we look for 1.0353, a 76% correction point, then last year’s 1.0237 bottom in the coming weeks.
