NOKSEK – Selling renewed. Targets?
16th March 2016
NOKSEK – Rally capped by key average.
I have written a number of times on the deteriorating NOKSEK since a negative trigger was given last June with a move through the 21 week displaced moving average.
Targets have been consistently met as the cross followed the lower end of the weekly Keltner channel lower. The strength of the downtrend, from June to September, was marked by a ‘hugging’ of the lower band with rallies easily contained by the mid-point (the 13 week moving average).
The solidity of the decline has been threatened this year however with the rally from January’s low breaking through the channel midpoint. Using that point then as a platform NOKSEK has, over the last 2 weeks, tested the key 21 week moving average – the 1st time since June 2015.
Importantly, as can be seen from the chart, that level held the cross and has now led, this week, to renewed selling. At the time of writing the decline is the most aggressive since September and has broken through a trend of higher weekly lows, and below the mid-point of the Keltner channel.
It is important that prices close this week below that line to maintain negative sentiment.
The market would then be expected to focus on .9561 and this year’s .9486 bottom. Below that are projected Fibonacci points of .9325 and .9114.
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