NZDUSD – Sentiment turns Negative

7th September 2017

Last week’s NZDUSD decline was the 4th negative weekly performance from the last five. But, more importantly, the spot broke below the 21 week moving average confirming a similar RSI breach the previous week.

This move has turned NZDUSD sentiment bearish for the first time since May. The positive change then was to yield almost 5 big figures to July’s peak.

Signals for sentiment cannot be strongly negative until spot NZDUSD is hugging the lower end of a declining Keltner channel. But we feel it is significant that this week began with an attempt to correct last week’s fall but, so far, the market has been unable to maintain prices back above the moving average.

That point is currently .7197 with a close below confirming a negative NZDUSD bias that we expect to yield the .6925/7035 area.

Even a close above the average would only be assessed as immediately bullish if it is matched by a similar ‘golden’ cross in the RSI indicator.


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