USDTRY – Bull Trend to End?

1st February 2018

Update 7th February

The line mentioned in this report held the USDTRY downside and so the underlying tone remained bullish into this week. The Moving Average has, naturally, moved higher and so the same situation applies as we approach this weekend with the key level, on a closing basis, now at 3.7695.


A 3rd up week in a row at the end of September confirmed an important low in USDTRY. This improvement took spot USDTRY through the 21 week moving average with, as confirmation,  our RSI indicator also moving above it’s own average. Gains extended by more than 40 big figures until reaching November’s all time peak.

Price action since that point has corrected the USDTRY improvement by almost 45% but this has not yet altered the underlying positive bias, at least in our assessment.

However, that situation is under threat. The RSI indicator posted a negative (dead) cross 4 weeks ago and last week’s renewal of USDTRY selling pressure has led to a strong test of the trend determining 21 week average. That point held last week and is, currently, providing support this week.

But it is a weekly closing basis that it important and so 3.7525 is the level to be aware of as we near the end of the week. A close below will expose USDTRY to 3.7165, January’s low, then 3.6710. Confirmation and future updates of potential downside targets will be noted on our Trend Table.


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