USDTRY – Tracking Channel Higher

12th December 2016

3cAnalysis technical signals for sentiment have been bullish for the bulk of 2016. As we approach the end of the year there is no change to that tone. In fact USDTRY price action over the last 6 weeks has seen the upside accelerate to new all-time highs.

Positive studies have been dominated by RSI and Momentum that have remained above their moving averages, except for brief, unconfirmed, dips in August and September – see charts below.

Since that latest setback USDTRY has moved to the top (and even outside) of an increasingly positive weekly Keltner channel. A weakening of more than 23% from August’s low did take the currency pair to overbought extremes but the limited nature of last week’s rejection, and sharp bounce from the lows, keeps the focus clearly on the topside.

In fact, last week’s low provides us with an opportunity to plot fresh Fibonacci extension targets and so we now look for USDTRY potential to 3.6765 then 3.7557 in the coming weeks.

There is scope for some consolidation or even another dip but unless last week’s low is clearly breached our positive outlook is unlikely to be compromised.




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